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The short version
Yes, waiting for cheaper solar panels could end up costing you more than installing solar now. Panel prices have risen in 2026, while freight, exchange rates and installation costs are also adding pressure. More importantly, delaying solar means missing out on electricity bill savings, which may outweigh any future reduction in panel prices.
If you’ve been thinking about solar for a year or two, you may have picked up the idea that panels will keep getting cheaper. It’s a fair assumption. Solar panel prices fell by around 89% between 2010 and 2024, once you adjust for inflation ¹. A system that cost ten times today’s panel price fifteen years ago now costs a fraction of it.
That history is exactly why so many Kiwi homeowners traditionally held off going solar; expecting a system to be cheaper next year. For these people going solar has never been a case of “IF” but, rather, “WHEN”. We affectionately call these guys the "solar procrastinators”. But 2026 has told a different story, and it’s worth understanding this before deciding that waiting is the smart move.
What changed this year
Earlier this year, China removed the last of its export tax rebates on solar panels, and brought in tighter rules aimed at stopping manufacturers selling below cost ². Those changes don’t fix a price, but they do take away some of the room manufacturers had to discount.
Since January, panel prices out of China have risen by somewhere in the order of 20-25% in US dollar terms ³. On top of that, two things have added further pressure for New Zealand consumers specifically. Freight rates from China have climbed sharply over the year ⁴, and the New Zealand dollar has weakened to around 56-57 US cents ⁵.
Together, these mean the landed cost of panels to New Zealand has been under more pressure than the factory price alone suggests. None of this guarantees prices will keep rising, but it’s fair to say the full impact has not been passed on to kiwi consumers and the easy assumption that panels only get cheaper doesn’t hold the way it used to.
Panels are a smaller piece of the puzzle than you’d think
Even a genuine fall in panel prices doesn’t move the needle on your total system cost as much as you’d expect. In our own system pricing, panels make up around 35-40% of a typical solar-only installation, and labour makes up around 20-25%% ⁶.
That matters because skilled solar installers are in short supply across the industry, and that kind of pressure tends to push labour costs up over time, not down. So even if panel prices eased again, a rise in installation costs could easily cancel it out, or worse.
The real cost of waiting
The real cost of waiting isn’t on the quote - it’s the power bill savings you give up in the meantime. Say, for example, your household saves around $2,000 a year on power once you’ve gone solar. Every home’s saving depends on the roof, the system, and how much power you use, but run with it for a moment.
Wait 12 months, and you’ve given up $2,000 in savings you could have been banking. Wait 24 months, and it’s $4,000. For a wait like that to pay off, the fall in panel prices would need to be bigger than what you’ve given up in bill savings, and bigger than any rise in labour and other costs along the way. Based on where the market sits right now, that’s not a bet with great odds.
Making the call for your home
None of this means you should never wait. If you’re about to replace your roof or your budget just isn’t there yet, those are good reasons to hold off. What doesn’t hold up as a reason on its own is waiting for a cheaper panel.
The better move is to get a solar proposal that shows your actual numbers: the full installed price, expected generation, and the bill savings for your home. Compare that against what another year or two of waiting would actually cost you. That’s a far more useful question than trying to guess where a global commodity market goes next.
Today’s price, locked in
Our install teams are fully booked until the end of the year. If you accept your quote before 10th November, we’ll honour that price for installs into 2027, so you won’t miss out while you wait.
If you’d like to see what solar looks like for your place, book a free, no-obligation, on-site assessment and a local Harrisons Solar business owner will walk you through it.
Give us a bell on 0800 00 33 55 or book a free assessment
Harrisons Solar - The Solar People
Disclaimer:
All charts are a simplified view of price movements over time and do not reflect all fluctuations within each period. Prices varied significantly at times, including during COVID.
- IRENA / pvXchange solar panel price history, compiled by Our World in Data.
- China Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration announcement, January 2026; PV Magazine reporting on China’s cost-accounting and pricing rules, 2026.
- OPIS panel price assessments, as reported in PV Magazine, 2026.
- Navia Freight, October 2026 market update, citing Xeneta freight data.
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand, daily exchange rates.
- Harrisons Solar system pricing model.
